Projection Estimates GLP-1 Market to Nearly Double by End of Decade | Asembia 2025
Although the market is expected to continue to become more popular, compounding pharmacies will no longer be allowed to manufacture these medications, as shortages have been listed as resolved.
The glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) market is experiencing unprecedented growth and complexity that projects to double in the next decade, according to Becky Davis, principal at Charles River Associates. Although the class has been around since 2005, a recent spike in popularity impacted the market of the diabetes drugs and subsequent indications, including obesity, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular health.1
Although the market is expected to continue to become more popular, compounding pharmacies will no longer be allowed to manufacture these medications, as shortages have been listed as resolved. | Image Credit: KStock - stock.adobe.com
“We’ve seen a lot of recent growth. We see a lot of people kind of complaining and afraid of the growth that's happened already, but this projection [shows] it's expected to double from where it is now by the end of the decade. That's pretty striking,” Davis said in a session at Asembia’s AXS25 Summit.. “Demand has soared. It's expected to continue to soar, and that's kind of even in the face of a bunch of different hurdles.”
GLP-1 receptor agonists were launched in 2005 with exenatide (Byetta) for type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide (Victoza) launched in 2010, followed by liraglutide (Saxenda) and dulaglutide (Trulicity) in 2014, semaglutide (Ozempic) in 2017, oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) in 2019, semaglutide (Wegovy) in 2021, and tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound) in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Only Saxenda, Wegovy, and Zepboud are indicated for weight loss, though the class of medication has been hailed as weight loss drugs. The first patent expiration date for the current generation is set for 2031, so no generic products are projected to be on the market soon.1
“Initially, there were a lot of strong concerns about safety. We're probably at the point where we've had these products [have been here] long enough where hopefully we're past some of those concerns,” Davis said.
Although there is evidence to support the safety, there are still questions around GLP-1’s impact on the liver, specifically liver cancer. Patients with a history of liver cancer or patients with a family history of liver cancer should not be placed on the medication. Further, a recent potential Pfizer GLP-1, danuglipron, was discontinued due to liver-associated toxicity. There are many other medications on the horizon for GLP-1s, so the class market is expected to grow accordingly.1,2
“Both [Eli} Lily and Novo [Nordisk] are waiting FDA approval of orals. For Novo, it's a normal version of their semaglutide,” Davis said. “For Lily, it's a different molecule, orforglipron, and the data has been encouraging there. So, it'll be kind of a race to see who gets into market and what that means in terms of uptake.”
However, since GLP-1 medication is no longer on the FDA’s drug shortage list, compounding pharmacies are no longer allowed to manufacture it, though this could change in the future, Davis said.3 A lot of manufacturers are launching direct-to-consumer programs where a patient can buy the medication from a manufacturer and bypass the pharmacy. On April 29, Novo Nordisk announced a partnership with Hims & Hers Health Inc, LifeMD, and Ro, which are direct-to-consumer platforms, and will allow more access to the medication.1,4
“Lily fought the fight with compounders. The ruling came down saying compounders cannot continue, and we just got that ruling equivalently for Novo last week,” Davis said. “As it stands right now. Lily and Novo should have free rein to supply both sides of this market, the payer covered and that cash situation, and that's why they've been announcing and rolling out all these offerings. Will compounding continue? I'm sure it will. I just don't think it will be serving anywhere near the same percentage of this market that it had in the past couple years.”
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